Bet Sports

NFL betting has grown in spades since the beginning of the decade, when it came to predicting a team’s overall win total. With NFL betting lines for win totals recently appearing at sportsbooks both online and in person, we thought it would be wise to go over some basic steps when betting on the over under for total wins.

Initially many NFL handicappers would wager on the under of teams predicted to win nine or more games and the over for teams of six or fewer wins. The logic behind this method was that upcoming season’s schedules would be based on how a team fared the year before. As a result, this method was able to make a big profit for the majority of handicappers.

Nevertheless, as we’ve seen with the Monday Night Football home underdog system in the past, all good things must change. Meaning to say, in the last few years, teams schedules have now only included two of the same games as last year, making it more difficult to predict which teams will make good on total wins predictions.

For instance, at the start of the decade, teams with 500 or lower records the year prior such as the Baltimore Ravens, St. Louis Rams and New England Patriots, were consistent winners the following year after a poor season. Over the last five years however, only the New Orleans Saints who finished 2008 with a 500 record won the Super Bowl. From 2005 to 2008, the other three Super Bowl winners were legitimate contenders who made the playoffs every year.

The biggest decision one needs to make is determining whether a poor record the season prior was a blip for a given team or a consistency. We’ve found that one of the biggest issues facing a team’s success is their turnover rate. In 2008 for instance, the Cincinnati Bengals were an atrocious four and 12 because of turnovers and a Carson Palmer season ending injury. Yet in 2009 when the Bengals were relatively healthy, they jumped out to a 10 and six overall record, with the O/U on wins for the Bengals only being six going into last season.