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NFL betting lines have New England as the sports betting favorites to win the Super Bowl, and for good reason: the Patriots made some big moves that were bold, but could backfire in their face. Still, no one is better at motivation than Bill Belichick, and he has one more good title run left in him, along with Tom Brady.
The Patriots picked up Chad Ochocinco from New England, and he shouldn’t be a problem as he truly respects Belichick and quarterback Tom Brady, and while he isn’t lightning fast anymore, Ochocinco can still stretch the field, which opens it up for Wes Welker and the tight-end duo of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. The bigger risk is Haynesworth, who got $100 million and proceeded to do nothing in Washington, where he constantly fought with head coach Mike Shanahan over systems and conditioning, among other things. But prior to that, Haynesworth was an All-Pro tackle in Tennessee and if he’s motivated, he and Vince Wilfork could be the most impressive pair of defensive linemen in the league. Also, most of his salary has already been paid out, so Haynesworth will have to work for whatever money (about $12 million) he is still owed.
New England flipped late-round draft picks for these two, so the risk was really minimal, and look at Belichick’s track record: Randy Moss, Corey Dillon and even Tedy Bruschi were considered troublemakers before they got to New England, but they fell into the “New England Way”. If Ochocinco and Haynesworth do that, and early reports say they have, the Patriots are the team to bet on in your best online HYPERLINK "http://www.betonline.com/sportsbook"sportsbook.
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In a few days time Super Bowl 45 betting line handicappers will be able to watch the rest of the NFL battle it out in Pro Bowl. For years, the Pro Bowl would be played after the Super Bowl betting line game in order to include members of the two Championship game squads. However, as a bettor it was the worst possible thing, because they would be stuck over thinking their Super Bowl prediction. However, as we've seen the last couple years, the Pro Bowl plays an important role in the outcome of the Super Bowl finals and here is why.
Over the last couple of years, fans handicapping the NFL have discovered that the winning conference of the Pro Bowl doesn't necessarily equal the winning team of the Super Bowl. For instance, over the last couple of years, the winner of the Super Bowl has come from the conference that loses the Pro Bowl outright.
Last year the AFC won the Pro Bowl after a two year hiatus from the victory column. As a result, this season the AFC opened the Pro Bowl betting lines as a two and a half point favorite over the NFC. This year's AFC squad features the three best offensive players in the game, in leading passer Philip Rivers, leading receiver Andre Johnson and leading rusher Arian Foster. What's more, the AFC will have arguably the two most prolific cornerbacks in the game today as Darrelle Revis will man one side of the field while now former Oakland Raider Nnamdi Asomugha. For the latter of the two corner backs the Pro Bowl represents an opportunity for him to show case his talents to a new team seeking defensive secondary help, as the Raiders released him a few weeks ago.
The NFC counters with a boat load of talent including Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Michael Vick and Super Bowl 44 MVP Drew Brees. In each of the last five Pro Bowls, the total has gone over the number set by the sportsbooks, so consider taking the over again this season. |
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In only a couple of days, NFL betting lines will close for this week, as the final eight remaining teams battle it out to advance to the Super Bowl betting finals on February 6, 2011. This week's divisional round football betting playoffs, sees four teams entering the week with momentum and another four teams that haven't played in two weeks. Here is our prediction as to which of the remaining eight teams will win the Super Bowl for the 2010-11 seasons.
Entering this weekend's action, the New England Patriots have been off for two weeks, thanks to receiving a first round bye as a result of owning the NFL's best regular season record at 14 wins and two losses. On Sunday night, the Patriots face AFC East divisional foe the New York Jets in the first of three remaining games before being crowned Super Bowl XLV Champions.
The Patriots were a rather intriguing team this regular season. On the one hand, they owned one of the top 10 offenses on the back of this season's MVP Tom Brady. Conversely however, due to the youth infection in their defense, the Patriots owned the 26th ranked defense. Despite these two points, the Patriots go into week two of the divisional round playoffs, facing an overrated New York Jets squad.
The last time these two teams met, the Patriots killed the Jets 45 to three. During the regular season, the Patriots hardly ever faced adversity, as they always found ways to come back and win football games. After a first round loss to the Baltimore Ravens last season, you can be certain that the Patriots will do everything in their power to face the Ravens in the AFC Championship game.
In our opinions, the New England Patriots are the best all around team in football. After they beat the Ravens in the AFC Championship, the Super Bowl will just be a formality. |
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When it comes to handicapping the NFL, many NFL betting enthusiasts like to create systems. For ultimate capper, one such system, that is rather time consuming but accurate is the NFL Point Differential System. For fans new to betting on NFL, the PDS is a great indication of a team’s offense and defense leading into a given week. Here is a look at how the PDS works using the road team in a week 7 matchup where the Houston Texans are facing the New England Patriots in New England.
Through the first six games of the season, the Houston Texans have only scored 104 points while giving up a disastrous 148 points. To calculate the Texans average points scored and points allowed we will be dividing 104 by six and 148 by six. After doing so, we discover that the Texans are averaging 17.33 points for a game while giving up 24.67 points a game. Putting the PDS to use, there are four steps for us to consider.
- 1. List all of Houston’s opponents in the first six weeks and their per game averages
Indianapolis 22.3 – 20.5
Green Bay 18.5 – 20.33
Cincinnati 23 – 17.83
Tampa Bay 18.83 – 17
Pittsburgh 26 – 18.16
Buffalo 16.33 – 19.17
- 2. Add up all the totals for points scored and divide by six and then do the same for points allowed.
Points Scored: 22.3+18.5+23+18.83+26+16.33 = 125.17 / 6 = 20.86 Points Allowed: 20.5+20.33+17.83+17+18.16+19.17= 110.83 / 6 = 18.47
- 3. Divide Houston’s average points scored by the average points allowed.
Points for / Points Allowed = 17.33/ 18.47 = 0.94
In essence, this number tells us that the Texans offense operates at 94 percent of the league’s average offense.
- 4. Divide the number of points the Texans have allowed to that of which their opponents have scored.
Points Allowed/ Points Scored = 24.67/20.86= 1.18
This number tells us that the Texan defense gives up 18 percent more points than that of the league average. |
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NFL betting has grown in spades since the beginning of the decade, when it came to predicting a team’s overall win total. With NFL betting lines for win totals recently appearing at sportsbooks both online and in person, we thought it would be wise to go over some basic steps when betting on the over under for total wins.
Initially many NFL handicappers would wager on the under of teams predicted to win nine or more games and the over for teams of six or fewer wins. The logic behind this method was that upcoming season’s schedules would be based on how a team fared the year before. As a result, this method was able to make a big profit for the majority of handicappers.
Nevertheless, as we’ve seen with the Monday Night Football home underdog system in the past, all good things must change. Meaning to say, in the last few years, teams schedules have now only included two of the same games as last year, making it more difficult to predict which teams will make good on total wins predictions.
For instance, at the start of the decade, teams with 500 or lower records the year prior such as the Baltimore Ravens, St. Louis Rams and New England Patriots, were consistent winners the following year after a poor season. Over the last five years however, only the New Orleans Saints who finished 2008 with a 500 record won the Super Bowl. From 2005 to 2008, the other three Super Bowl winners were legitimate contenders who made the playoffs every year.
The biggest decision one needs to make is determining whether a poor record the season prior was a blip for a given team or a consistency. We’ve found that one of the biggest issues facing a team’s success is their turnover rate. In 2008 for instance, the Cincinnati Bengals were an atrocious four and 12 because of turnovers and a Carson Palmer season ending injury. Yet in 2009 when the Bengals were relatively healthy, they jumped out to a 10 and six overall record, with the O/U on wins for the Bengals only being six going into last season. |
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